A Hand to Hillary

I give Hillary Clinton credit. She did better in yesterday’s primaries than I expected. However, if you delve deeper, Obama also did very well in the two big state primaries, Ohio and Texas. He was 20 points behind in Ohio and a similar amount in Texas (though perhaps lower?) just a few weeks ago. He ended up losing Ohio by 10 points and 4 points in the Texas primary. In the Texas caucus, which is responsible for allocating 1/3 of that state’s delegates, he’s currently winning by about 10 points, though the final tallies are not yet in.

The point is, Obama was able to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short time, and, in the end, the overall delegate difference between Senators Clinton and Obama are essentially unchanged.

Nevertheless, Clinton’s wins gives her the ammunition she needs to justify continuing her campaign, and rightfully so. The next couple primaries are currently likely to go in Obama’s favor, though in terms of delegates, they’re pretty small. The next big test will be in Pennsylvania (my home state!) on April 22nd. We shall see.

If Senator Clinton ends up being the democratic nominee, I am very afraid this will bode well for Senator McCain in the general election. The country is still, overall, very divided politically. If enough conservative republicans vote for McCain, and (not that many) democrats either defect or simply stay home, then McCain will win, simple as that. Current polls already give McCain the advantage over Clinton in the general election, but Obama beats McCain. These polls don’t mean that much now and will certainly change. We still have eight months until the general election, and a lot can happen. Nevertheless, McCain isn’t going to be sitting still while Clinton and Obama continue to fight it out.

I liked Bill Clinton as president. I’d love to see a woman become president. But I think Hillary Clinton is too polarizing a candidate, and that makes me sad because I think she could be a good president. But I think Obama can make an equally good, or perhaps better, president, if only because he’s not either a Clinton or a Bush, two families that have held the office of either President or Vice President longer than my entire adult life; 27 years since 1981 when Ronald Reagan became president with George Bush the elder as Vice President. I would like to see a change.